On a scheme for predictive maintenance

An operating system contains a replaceable unit whose wear (i.e. accumulated amount of damage) can be observed over time. When the wear reaches a certain level the unit is no longer able to function satisfactorily and needs to be replaced. Although units are produced to the same nominal specification there is still some random variation among them in their wear rates. This will be expressed by incorporating a random effect, or frailty term, in the model for individual degradation. There are costs for observing the wear on a unit, for replacing a unit, and for allowing a unit to fail before being replaced. When the last cost is comparatively large replacement before failure is preferable. For some standard examples of wear processes the lifetime distributions are obtained and the cost consequences of particular maintenance schemes are investigated. 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.